Defusing the Nuclear Threat

The risk of a nuclear catastrophe is far greater than we think.

Our ability to reduce that risk is far greater than we imagine.

Too few people are interested in nuclear weapons and there's a much larger “market” of people wanting to improve their relationships, so I’m now working with my wife Dorothie on a new approach that combines the personal with the global. Click here to sign up for information, updates, and opportunities to participate.

Lessons From the Cuban Missile Crisis: Did you know that JFK was taking amphetamines? that American destroyers unknowingly attacked Soviet subs armed with nuclear torpedoes? that we are still engaged in very risky behavior? Learn how we can change that!

How Risky is Nuclear Optimism?: Read Prof. Hellman's paper in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists and find out.

Soaring, Cryptography and Nuclear Weapons: How could three such different topics be related?

Archive of email #3 to participants

July 2, 2008

This is only the third "Defusing the Nuclear Threat" email for the NuclearRisk.org web site, so I'm definitely keeping my promise to send no more than one a week. Viral growth is still an elusive goal and I'm exploring whether a short video might help achieve that. It would have to be really catchy – almost edgy – and figuring out if and how that can be done will require some energy.

One graphic that I'm thinking of would start with a picture of a typical home, then have a nuclear power plant suddenly pop up on its north fence, then another on the south fence, then more and more and more in rings surrounding the home until there are 10,000 of them. That is the equivalent risk I estimate we all face from a failure of nuclear deterrence. It would be important to also convey the hope and positive possibility, and that's a bit trickier.

If you missed the hopeful part of the web site or need a reminder, check out these links:

http://nuclearrisk.org/change.php

http://nuclearrisk.org/4change.php

http://nuclearrisk.org/5principles.php#dweck

I'm also working on a new article, currently entitled "Soaring, Cryptography and Nuclear Weapons," which is based on a talk that seems to work well. What links all three areas (aside from being passions of mine) is the danger of ignoring low probability catastrophic events. Using soaring as the entry helps overcome resistance to thinking about nuclear weapons. When the article is done, I'll post it on the web site and provide a link in one of these emails.

That's it for now. Wishing you all a good Fourth of July weekend,

Martin
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Martin Hellman
Member, National Academy of Engineering
Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering
Stanford University

If you missed the first two emails to the group, they are at http://nuclearrisk.org/resources.php along with other resources.

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