How risky are nuclear weapons?
Amazingly, no one seems to know.

I'm Martin Hellman, a professor at Stanford University. When I started this project, I tried to find studies which estimated the risk of our current approach to nuclear weapons. I also asked prominent authorities on nuclear weapons, national security, and risk analysis if they knew of any such studies. I found nothing.

So I did a preliminary analysis of the risk we face and found that it was equivalent to having your home surrounded by thousands of nuclear power plants. I published that analysis in a paper (PDF download) which urgently calls for more detailed studies to either confirm or correct that startling conclusion.

Informed, subjective estimates support the need for in-depth studies. Former Secretary of Defense William Perry puts the odds of a nuclear terrorist attack in the next ten years at 50-50. Indiana Republican Senator Richard Lugar's survey of 85 national security experts reached a similarly alarming conclusion.

What good can studies do?

Even minor changes in our nuclear weapons strategy have been rejected as too risky. The proposed studies avoid that criticism, and by exposing the existing risk will provide the motivation needed to consider new options. They also will provide a road map for rapidly reducing the nuclear threat by identifying the most likely failure mechanisms. Risk analysis studies also will illuminate the relationship between nuclear terrorism and nuclear war.

What role can you play in solving such an immense problem?

Little will change until the public understands the risk it currently faces. So our first goal is to develop public support for widely publicized risk analysis studies. Unless those studies' estimates are thousands of times smaller than mine, alternative strategies that reduce the risk will have to be given serious consideration.

Individuals with courage and foresight are needed to start the process of demanding that this issue be given the attention it deserves. Begin by taking a minute and emailing friends who might be interested. This will multiply your influence many times over and has the potential to start a chain reaction.

Also, be sure to enter your email address in the box to the left so we can stay connected and keep you informed as new approaches are found for accelerating progress. Our emails will be limited to at most one a week and your address will be kept in strict confidence.

Who else agrees?

While action by ordinary citizens is the key to this effort, it helps to know that a statement signed by two Nobel Laureates and other prominent individuals supports our call to action. For the complete statement and a list of its endorsers click here ››

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